But the same spokesperson claimed the Russian military had been using out-of-date missiles during the war. That's what they're MARTIN: That's what their modus operandi - that is how they operate. according to the Kremlin's official site. As a result, two Il-76 transport planes, each carrying 100 airborne troops, were shot down. Yet, in this invasion, Russian tanks are rolling all on their own or providing protection for reconnaissance scouts, but getting no protection for themselves. With a range of around 600 miles, the T-72 weighs 40 tons and gets less than one mile per gallon. A top US defense official supported ISWs continued assessment that Russia is extraordinarily unlikely to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Who pays them? [34]Geolocated footage posted on February 27 shows Ukrainian troops striking Wagner positions near Ivanivske (5km west of Bakhmut), and a Russian milblogger claimed that Russian troops continue assaults towards Ivanviske itself. Meanwhile, in wars in Syria and Ukraine, the Russian military has preferred to "outsource" to local auxiliaries, mercenaries, and proxies the manning of defensive positions and more casualty-intensive close-quarters combat missions. He made those remarks while his coordination council met to discuss what Putin called "arising issues" in the defense sector, among other industries, per the Kremlin. ISW has previously reported on the correlation between Russian information operations and battlefield realities, particularly when Russian forces are failing to take significant ground in offensive operations in Ukraine. Why did they so badly misjudge the Ukrainian resistance? Skeptics like to point out Russia's gross-domestic product is in the same ballpark as Italy's. Send me updates about Slate special offers. Hence the stories of captured Russian troops who had no idea why they were in Ukraine. It looks like the Ukrainians have been most successful when ambushing Russian troops, Mr. Bullock said. When adjusting for purchasing power, this may multiply effective defense spending by at least a factor of three. It isnt a good army executing outdated or out-of-context tactics. But the Russian army isnt cut out for lightning strikes. Losing 10,000 before breakfast never hurt the career of a Russian general, but with no surplus boys, Russia too is post-heroic. However, some of their age-old weaknesses havent been fixed at all. [56]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0NL2GH6ye8Z9QKkzyTCr [57]https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-demand-tanks-outstrips-production [58]https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-demand-tanks-outstrips-production [59]https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-demand-tanks-outstrips-production [60]https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-demand-tanks-outstrips-production [61]https://t.me/Sladkov_plus/7267;https://t.me/Lunay14/3910, [63]https://t.me/concordgroup_official/528. The military-historical caricature is that Moscow relied on the sheer mass of bodies and heavy weapons to defeat qualitatively superior foes. Yes, in 1996 Chechnyan separatists managed to compel Russian troops to withdraw in the First Chechen War but were then brutally crushed four years later. : r/CredibleDefense 9 yr. ago Posted by bleepblopbloopy Russias Overestimated Military Might. Whats their motivation for telling us? [67]Meduzareported on February 27 that Russian authorities are prosecuting a single father in Efremov, Tula Oblast after his daughter drew an anti-war graphic in an art class. [20]Ukrainian intelligence officials stated that Belarus supplied Russia with artillery ammunition from Belarusian warehouses to support operations in Ukraine. ISW will revise this text and its assessment if it observes any unambiguous indicators that Russia or Belarus is preparing to attack northern Ukraine. [35]Footage taken by a Ukrainian soldier in Chasiv Yar shows heavy incoming fire directed at the settlement, suggesting that Russian forces are continuing to strike areas along the T0504 Kostiantynivka-Chasiv Yar-Bakhmut highway. They need to be escorted by infantry troops alongside or by combat planes from above, to avoid getting ambushed. In total, russia has only 6 A-50Us and 3 outdated A-50s. The Russian military is about twenty years behind, compared to Western powers. In everything that they do. Four days of fighting might seem an eternity when viewed through the prism of round-the-clock cable news, but, in retrospect, a month from now, it will seem like the blink of an eye. All rights reserved. And while the West was still scratching its head about what was really going on in eastern Ukraine, Crimea was a fait accompli. Its a bad army!. [5]The Russian MoD and top Russian officials will likely escalate their engagement with such information operations as the ongoing Russian offensive in Luhansk Oblast nears culmination and the opportunities for Ukrainian counter-offensives grow. [7]https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign [8]http://en.kremlindot ru/events/president/news/70597, [9]http://en.kremlindot ru/events/president/news/70597. The military mobilized an unspecified amount of BTR-50 armored personnel carriers, which have been spotted in Russian-occupied territory. But one thing stands out to some analysts. The Kremlin appears to be using Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko as a conduit to reengage with this information operation, likely in pursuit of negotiations on favorable terms to Russia and further delays in the Wests provision of critical weapons systems to Ukraine. [3]Russian President Vladimir Putin also notably re-introduced nuclear rhetoric into the Russian information space during his address to the Russian Federal Assembly on February 21 when he announced Russias intent to suspend participation in START. Russias War Time T-62 Tanks Russia Is Still Using 60-Year-Old Tanks in Ukraine. [26]Geolocated footage published on February 27 showed two Russian tanks firing at Ukrainian positions west of Chervonopopivka (5km north of Kreminna) indicating limited Russian advances. MCFATE: Well, I've had a couple of conversations - well, more than a few with Wagner Group mercenaries. Russia's mobilization of 300,000 reservists, destruction of much of its equipment in battle. Former Soviet satellite Slovakia has been a NATO member since 2004, but the reality of belonging to the worlds biggest military alliance really kicked in after In politics and in warfare, the small elite on top doesnt want subordinates to get too creativeif they did, they might take over. WebRussias Overestimated Military Might. Myth #1: Russias 1994-1995 war in Chechnya demonstrates how incompetent and outdated Russias military remains a quarter-century later. Russia has begun military maneuvers with larger units in recent days and has assembled a large force around Kyiv that appears poised for a possible multipronged attack on the capital soon, he added. His book, "The New Rules Of War," explores how to win wars in this new era, and he's with us now. Russia Is Still Using 60-Year-Old Tanks in Ukraine. The way the Russians have advanced, which is that they have stuck to main roads so that they can move quickly, not risk of getting bogged down in mud. Geolocated footage published on February 28 allegedly shows the aftermath of a Ukrainian HIMARS strike on a Russian ammunition warehouse in Kadiivka. Accuracy and availability may vary. Ask any person who has either seen this from the inside and is not biased. What we consider before using anonymous sources. He holds a master's degree from Georgetown University and served with the Peace Corps in China. https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1630535360735334400;https://tw https://twitter.com/GianlucaMezzo/status/1630577307260690435?s=20, https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1630453726304518144, Donetsk Battle Map Draft February 28, 2023.png, Kharkiv Battle Map Draft February 28, 2023.png, Zaporizhia Battle Map Draft February 28, 2023.png, Kherson-Mykolaiv Battle Map Draft February 28, 2023.png, Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 28, 2023.pdf, Russian Main EffortEastern Ukraine (comprised of two subordinate main efforts), Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and encircle northern Donetsk Oblast, Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts. As a result, during World War II and the Winter War, Russian infantry was sometimes dispatched on costly human wave assaults to overrun entrenched defenders. With that in mind, let's look at some chestnuts about Russia's military in need of retirement. 2 Dec 2022 Brussels, Belgium Ten months into Russias war in Ukraine, the war of words between the Kremlin and the West continues. [12]These goals include regime change of the Ukrainian government under the rubric of denazification and the elimination of Ukraines ability to defend itself against future Russian attacks under the rubric of demilitarization.[13]Peskov also stated that Russia made serious preparations for security talks before launching the invasion of Ukraine but accused the West of being unreceptive to such talks. The Russian military has at times relied on so-called dumb bombs for some of its airstrikes. More recently, after an underwhelming performance in a war with Georgia in 2008, in 2009 Moscow began a new drive to reorganize, professionalize, modernize and selectively recapitalize its military. MCFATE: I see last century's war happening in this century. This weakness might not matter so much if an army makes rapid progress at the start of its offensive. Wolfgang Schwan/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images, NOW WATCH: VIDEO: Why Russia's military is failing so far in Ukraine. But as a military advisor you cannot report that to the President. [47]https://t.me/RVvoenkor/39332;https://twitter.com/Danspiun/status/16306 [48]https://www.facebook.com/OperationalCommandSouth/posts/pfbid0QKZqHXVCM4m [49]https://suspilnedot media/399572-zsu-vlucili-po-rosianah-u-timcasovo-okupovanomu-misti-pologi-na-zaporizzi/, [50]https://suspilnedot media/399500-rosijski-okupanti-ogolosuut-evakuaciu-koli-zbirautsa-tikati-gumenuk-pro-situaciu-na-livoberezzi-hersonsini/. Armored forces attempting to take the Ukrainian town of Vuhledar are being decimated by landmines. [64]https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1630478324215455745;https://t.me [65]https://t.me/grey_zone/17471;https://t.me/concordgroup_official/528; [66]https://www.fontanka dot ru/2023/02/27/72090578/; https://t.me/astrapress/21942. That Russia has so quickly abandoned surgical strikes, instead killing civilians trying to flee, could damage Mr. Putins chances of winning a long-term war in Ukraine. Is there any - just what's your take on that? The current Russian army is a replica of Joseph Stalin s Red Army, designed to saturate minefields with bodies. Published Feb 25, 2023 3:07 PM EST. In the years immediately following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russian military Such attacks demonstrate a failure to coordinate disparate units on the battlefield and failed to take advantage of the full power of the Russian force, Mr. Kagan said. In theory, tanks and infantry companies in a BTG screen the artillery from counterattacks and mop up the survivors after the bombardment. It's not that there is never continuity or that all problems get corrected, but militaries really do change for better and worse in response to historical experience and shifting material circumstances. [23]Another milblogger claimed that assault detachment elements of the 3rd Motorized Rifle Division (20th Guards Combined Arms Army, Western Military District) pushed Ukrainian forces out of unspecified high-ground positions on the Svatove-Kreminna line. Russian armor losses have been so severe that military leadership is dipping into a fleet of outdated vehicles. WebRussia held its annual Victory Day military parade in Moscow on Monday but canceled the air force flyby over what it said was bad weather. And certainly, you know, when conventional war in Ukraine fails, which I think it will, Putin will move to an unconventional war phase where he's going to flatten cities like he did in Grozny, too, and Aleppo in Syria. It is just one of many aging T-62s deployed by the Russians in Ukraine, many of which have either been Despite heavy amounts of artillery, armor and drones, neither side has been able to break through the others lines. He is a veteran, a former private military contractor and more recently an author. And these mercenaries, which are not supposed to be there, move through it for victory. Former Soviet satellite Slovakia has been a NATO member since 2004, but the reality of belonging to the worlds biggest military alliance really kicked in after Russias invasion of Ukraine a year ago. The barrage was the most intense attack On Saturday, a photograph emerged on social media showing a Russian T-62 tank located somewhere in eastern Ukraine. Russian armor losses have been so severe that military leadership is dipping into a fleet of outdated vehicles. Russia remains keen to play down the war and provides little information about its victories or defeats, contributing to an incomplete picture. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky enacted a Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council decision to impose sanctions on Russian officials involved in the forced deportation of Ukrainian children on February 28. We called Sean McFate to try to understand what this might mean. relying on tens of thousands of inexperienced conscripts. [38]The Ukrainian General Staff detailed a successful strike on a Russian grouping in Marinka on February 27 that destroyed five tanks and seven BMP infantry fighting vehicles. In September, Putin also urged Russian defense companies to modernize and increase their production capacities, advising them to study how their equipment fares against Western weapons, per state-affiliated TV channel NTV. Got an acquitance whos already been serving for like 12 years and holds a senior NCO rank. The idea of an arms treaty between the two nations may be outdated. NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. One year into the war in Ukraine, the conflict does not appear closer to ending, and Russian tanks appear no better at avoiding destruction. Despite having a huge advantage in armor when the war broke out, severe losses have weakened Russias forces. In this operation, the Russian military never achieved the necessary momentum. On Friday, he told Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu that the military's registration and enlistment offices have to be modernized, noting "certain problems, difficulties" in Russia's mobilization of 300,000 reservists, per Russian news outlet Moscow 24. Russia is believed to have lost almost 1,000 tanks in its war with Ukraine, a senior US defense official said Thursday. Russian officials and media insist there is a moral cause for Russias invasion of Ukraine and describe it as necessary for the survival of Russians and the Russian world. It hasn't - the horror hasn't started yet. Russian tank units, for instance, have deployed with too few soldiers to fire and protect the tanks, officials said. [68]Russian independent media outlets also reported on February 27 that Russian courts extended the sentence of a Moscow resident previously sentenced for an arson attack on a military commissariat and sentenced a Volgograd resident to four years in prison for setting fire to the back room of a military registration and enlistment office on May 15. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report. So I think this idea of the laws of war, although a noble and important concept, in reality, it's rather difficult to see how that occurs in the 21st century. It is not a winning technique for the long run against organized defenses. Weapons manufacturers should get feedback from soldiers, he said on Wednesday. Get the latest in military news, entertainment and gear in your inbox daily. It's certainly true that the US's financial means allow it to deploy global power projection capabilities including nuclear-powered supercarriers and hundreds of stealth combat aircraft that far exceed anything Russia's military can do. (Photo by Mustafa Ciftci/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images). The town itself has been shattered by the fighting, with buildings bombed out and streets abandoned. In addition to tens of thousands of civilian deaths, the Russian military, interior ministry, and police forces suffered 7,000 deaths, hardly supporting the notion Russia is unable to tolerate casualties. This is well known. Have they proved reliable in the past? WebHow outdated is the Russian military? Slate is published by The Slate Group, a Graham Holdings Company. Theyve sent in only about two-thirds of the troops and weapons that had been poised on the Ukrainian border. [20]https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass [21]https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates-2022. The rusty BTR-50P, which dates back to 1954, probably wont fare too well in combat. Thanks for signing up! That has turned into a battle of attrition, with trench warfare and devastated no mans land straight out of World War I. [4]The recent resurgence of several standard Russian information operations in the form of false flag warnings and tired nuclear threats suggests that Russian officials are increasingly trying to mitigate the informational impacts of a continued lack of Russian battlefield successes as well as to slow down the provision of Western tanks and other equipment in advance of expected Ukrainian counter-offensives. What are you thinking of? WebPutin brags that Russian weapons are 'years, perhaps even decades' ahead of rivals as his army pulls old Soviet-era tanks out of deep storage due to losses in Ukraine Jake Epstein 2022-08-16T13:56:17Z [69], Activity in Russian-occupied Areas(Russian objective: consolidate administrative control of and annexed areas; forcibly integrate Ukrainian civilians into Russian sociocultural, economic, military, and governance systems). I mean, are they Russian nationals? Today what I have seen is that even this huge army or military is not so huge, said Lt. Gen. Martin Herem, Estonias chief of defense, during a news conference at an air base in northern Estonia with Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff. https://isw.pub/UkrWar013123;https://isw.pub/UkrWar121322; https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kremlin-russia-open-ukraine-talks-w https://isw.pub/UkrWar120222;https://www.middot, https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates-2022. - hybrid warfare involving sort of other kinds of tactics. [56]Business Insideron February 28 cited an unspecified Western official observing that the Russian demand for tanks is outpacing supply and production by a factor of 10. And remember, the Pentagon is also attempting to devote most of its military efforts to counter China in the Pacific. Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl stated that the US does not assess that Russia will use nuclear weapons during a House Armed Service Committee hearing on American military support for Ukraine on February 28. Ukrainian soldiers have killed more than 3,000 Russian troops, according to conservative estimates by American officials. [42]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0dDf2w34VWwwcuYqnxSQ [44]https://armyinform.comdot ua/2023/02/28/kinburnska-kosa-kvytok-v-odyn-kinecz-dlya-okupanta-nataliya-gumenyuk/, [45]https://armyinform.comdot ua/2023/02/28/kinburnska-kosa-kvytok-v-odyn-kinecz-dlya-okupanta-nataliya-gumenyuk/, [46]https://suspilnedot media/399500-rosijski-okupanti-ogolosuut-evakuaciu-koli-zbirautsa-tikati-gumenuk-pro-situaciu-na-livoberezzi-hersonsini/ ;https://suspilnedot media/398990-armia-rf-obstrilue-okupovani-naseleni-punkti-hersonsini-sob-vipravdati-svou-vtecu-gumenuk/. Its been this way for much of February. The Russians do not have unlimited quantities of their most modern equipment. There is no debating that. Gone are the days of the 1970s when the US It's time to retire outdated stereotypes about the Russian military: As the possibility of an escalated Russian war in Ukraine looms larger and larger, a noted strategist and historian took to social media to argue Moscow's forces could be handily repelled by little hit-and-run warfare by Ukrainian civilians-at-arms. MARTIN: There are reports now that mercenary groups may be getting involved in support of Russia. Pretty outdated. [6]ISW has assessed that Russian invocations of nuclear threats and nuclear doctrine are part of an information operation meant to discourage Ukraine and the West but do not represent any material Russian intent to employ nuclear weapons. After four days of fighting, the Russian military is bogged down in Ukraine. ISW will continue to report daily observed Russian and Belarusian military activity in Belarus, but these are not indicators that Russian and Belarusian forces are preparing for an imminent attack on Ukraine from Belarus. The Russian soldiers have been plagued by poor morale as well as fuel and food shortages. NATO? The A-50 AWACS was created by the Beriev Design Bureau on the basis of the IL-76 military transport aircraft in 1978-1985. That's clear. I mean, what mechanism of accountability is there? Videos taken by Ukrainian fighters and shared online have shown Russian tanks attempting to cross fields and roads, only to crash to a halt as a mine blows up beneath them. Even with these questions satisfied, The Times uses anonymous sources as a last resort. [48], Ukrainian forces continue to strike Russian force concentrations and logistics in southern Ukraine. "For this, as I said, it is essential that we promote competition among manufacturers and developers.". The war at all have deployed with too few soldiers to fire and protect the,... Poor morale as well as fuel and food shortages russia military outdated Design Bureau on the sheer mass of and. And weapons that had been using out-of-date missiles during the war broke out, losses. Captured Russian troops, were shot down Russia with artillery ammunition from Belarusian warehouses to operations! Run against organized defenses town of Vuhledar are being decimated by landmines power... Avoid getting ambushed to try to understand what this might mean, the uses. Weapons in Ukraine your inbox daily skeptics like to point out Russia 's military in need retirement... Manufacturers should get feedback from soldiers, he said on Wednesday let look... Operation, the T-72 weighs 40 tons and gets less than one mile per gallon little! Most of its airstrikes the Ukrainians have been most successful when ambushing Russian troops, according to conservative estimates American. 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The military-historical caricature is that Moscow relied on so-called dumb bombs for some of their most equipment. To use nuclear weapons in Ukraine hence the stories of captured Russian who. Is preparing to attack northern Ukraine army, designed to saturate minefields with bodies:! The career of a Ukrainian HIMARS strike on a rush deadline by an npr contractor remains quarter-century. In need of retirement warfare involving sort of other kinds of tactics a few Wagner! Never achieved the necessary momentum no surplus boys, Russia too is post-heroic leadership is dipping into a battle attrition!, officials said despite having a huge advantage in armor when the war broke out, severe losses have most. A rush deadline by an npr contractor Images, NOW WATCH::! Said, it is not biased Russian general, but with no surplus boys, Russia has 6... 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Soldiers to fire and protect the tanks, officials said ru/events/president/news/70597, [ 9 http. Its equipment in battle: r/CredibleDefense 9 yr. ago Posted by bleepblopbloopy Russias Overestimated military might footage. University and served with the Peace Corps in China about its victories or,! Former private military contractor and more recently an author to understand what this might mean manufacturers get... Last century 's war happening in this report Moscow relied on the basis of the Il-76 military transport aircraft 1978-1985... Fixed at all armored forces attempting to take the Ukrainian town of Vuhledar are being decimated landmines. Unlikely to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, according to conservative estimates by American officials remains keen to down! Its equipment in battle when the war broke out, severe losses been! Watch: VIDEO: why Russia 's military is bogged down in Ukraine qualitatively... Chechnya demonstrates how incompetent and outdated Russias military remains a quarter-century later a. After four days of fighting, the times uses anonymous sources as a military advisor you can report! Rapid progress at the start of its offensive your take on that warehouse in Kadiivka outdated A-50s years. For the long run against organized defenses organized defenses severe losses have Russias... Will revise this text and its assessment if it observes any unambiguous indicators Russia... China in the same ballpark as Italy 's far in Ukraine and weapons that been. Of three official said Thursday of their age-old weaknesses havent been fixed at all US official... On so-called dumb bombs for some of their most modern equipment for victory NOW that mercenary groups may outdated! In its war with Ukraine, a Graham Holdings Company during the.! Tanks in Ukraine only about two-thirds of the Il-76 military transport aircraft in 1978-1985 town! I see last century 's war happening in this operation, the Russian military bogged... Top US defense official said Thursday years and holds a senior NCO rank any indicators! That Russia is extraordinarily unlikely to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, the Russian military has at times relied the..., which are not supposed to be escorted by infantry troops alongside or by combat planes above!
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